Alex the Superforecaster

In the heart of Zürich, Alex, a non-binary superforecaster, sat by Lake Zurich, their mind a tapestry of probabilities and possibilities. It was a decade since prediction markets had become mainstream, guiding economic policies and surprising skeptics with their accuracy. Alex worked at a global firm, their forecasts shaping financial strategies and public policy. Today, a delicate prediction about an impending economic shift troubled them, a black swan event whispering in hidden data. Confident in their calculations and buoyed by trust from past successes, Alex leaned into the challenge, drawing wisdom from Switzerland's delicate balance of precision and neutrality.